Why President Trump Is On The Verge Of Going To Jail

Why President Trump Is On The Verge Of Going To Jail

By Asa Montreaux

A number of months ago, President Trump had been in a federal jail, waiting for a hefty bail to be posted by his lawyers. Flash forward to now, he was found guilty on 34 charges at the end of a lengthy trial, and his sentencing hearing is happening on July 11. 

What are the chances of the former President going to jail? A U.S. President has never seen jail time, so from the perspective of status, and reputation, there is significant doubt that Trump will ever go to jail.

Though there is no law whatsoever forbidding a former President going to jail, and Mr. Trump has been a target for investigations, with the objective of charging him, since he left office.

In fact the Supreme court is ruling later this week on the question can a U.S. president ever go to jail, or do they have an immunity from this. A serving U.S. President is unable to be arrested or charged. Though, they can be removed from office through impeachment proceedings.

At that point, the point at which they are impeached, they are subject to charges and convictions for any crimes. Including ones that occurred during their presidencies.

The reality is Mr. Trump is facing charges related to his Presidency, including charges for conspiracy to defraud the government, obstruction of an official proceeding, amongst other charges. He is facing charges due to his safe keeping of documents at his Mars-A-Lago home pertaining to U.S. government secrets, namely Pentagon secrets. This case stems from intentions of his related to the documents from during his Presidency, as well at the literal action of taking the documents at the end of his Presidency, when he moved from the White House to Mars-A-Lago.

The charges related to the insurrection, for which Trump is presently awaiting sentencing, stem from events while he was the President of the United States. Similar to the proceedings of impeachment for criminal actions, the former President is facing charges from investigators following up on his actions while he was a President. This is after his period of immunity has theoretically passed.

Some critics argue that because no President, including Nixon, has ever been convicted of a crime post-office, Mr. Trump’s immunity still extends past his Presidency. There is no legal precedent for this.

However, legislation only allocates immunity for a president’s time in office. He was fair game to be charged, and he was. It was also uncontested legally, that Mr. Trump was convicted. His conviction concerning the insurrection charges is still upcoming, however the charges related to hush money payments have already resulted in a conviction.

On the question of whether a former President can actually go to jail, the Supreme Court is deliberating. As it stands, the U.S. Supreme Court is heavily slanted to the Conservative side, and a decision on Mr. Trump’s side is somewhat likely. 

However, there is some chance the lack of urgency about the situation will lead the Supreme Court to leave the law unchanged. Presidents may remain vulnerable to criminal charges post-office. 

What in particular makes this issue notably not of urgent concern, are two things. The first is that all thirty-four counts do not require jail-time, and Mr. Trumps offenses are not estimated to be near the maximum sentencing in terms of liability. 

Second, these(plural) are Mr. Trump’s first offences. As a non-felon, Mr. Trump is very unlikely to be sentenced to jail time for these offences. Though if he had been one, say if one of his other ongoing trials right now had led to a conviction previously, then he would be facing likely jail time.

In regard to the case that aside from this one, Mr. Trump is most likely to go to jail for, he faces 40 additional charges. This is the insurrection case. The Supreme Court is expected to reach a ruling this week on whether the proceedings of this trial are legal, though they are unlikely to reach a decision that prosecuting Mr. Trump, or the rioters, was unlawful, as it serves a societal function of keeping the peace.

The judge in that proceeding has postponed the trial date indefinitely, until a ruling is made concerning if a President can be prosecuted. This week’s ruling thus decides the fate of the case. The proceedings of his other cases also depend on this ruling.

“The question becomes — as we’ve been exploring here today, a little bit — about how to segregate private from official conduct that may or may not enjoy some immunity,” Justice Neil Gorsuch, a conservative judge of the court, said in April. Previous argumentation from the court has indicated that full immunity is actually out of the question, though to a certain extent President may begin to be considered immune from prosecution regarding matters directly related to the job.

The idea that all political actions will be considered legal is thought to be out of the question, and all critics are against that idea. There is a good chance of the interference trial going ahead.

The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals decided unanimously that he can face prosecution, so despite the heavy conservative leaning for the Supreme Court, an overturn of this decision is far from a likely decision.

With the possibility of this case being the second conviction for President Trump, it is more likely in this instance he will face jail. On the other side of things, this will have been a chain of proceedings from before his first conviction. And it will be concerning events well before his first conviction. A long sentencing may not have much reasoning to support it. It’s likely he will still receive a light treatment in this case, even without considering he is the former President.

Though the chance is there that he will face jail time from that offence. And Americans wonder whether the Republican nominee will not be just a convicted felon, but a serving inmate of a federal correctional facility, a prisoner. It is already the case Mr. Trump may be left off the ballot of several states. It is now possible he may not be able to attend the campaign event of several states, as well.